The Climate Security Threat: Pentagon War Games, European Political Risks, and Darfur Violence

State Department Said “Uneven Climate Exposure” Likely to Widen Gap Between Northern and Southern Europe Climate Change a “Compounding Factor” in Darfur

Pentagon War Game Examined “Environmental Security Challenges” and “Adversary Attempts to Exploit Them"

27.05.2026

Briefing Book #: 923

Edited by Rachel Santarsiero

Source:https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/climate-change-transparency-project/2026-05-27/climate-security-threat-pentagon-war

Washington, D.C., May 27, 2026 - State Department intelligence analysts predicted widening political fissures in Europe and warned about the rise of populist and radical political parties in response to climate action by European governments, according to a Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) assessment from 2021. The report is one of four newly released records on the Biden administration’s climate policies that were obtained under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and published today by the National Security Archive.

The reports shed light on how the intelligence community, the Pentagon, and other U.S. agencies assessed climate-driven instability across Europe and East Africa while attempting to develop a coordinated “whole-of-government” approach to climate security. The documents also reveal the extent to which the intelligence and defense communities rely on predictive modeling, open-source and third-party climate analysis, and interagency coordination to anticipate and prepare for future risks.

The new revelations come as the Trump administration is pursuing an aggressive campaign to remove government data and documents related to climate change and other important issues from public access.

The records offer some hints as to the intelligence community’s priorities around the time that the National Intelligence Council published its first National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on climate change, providing previously unknown and undisclosed context about the Biden administration’s climate security concerns and its coordination with its allies.

This briefing book is part of a National Security Archive effort to illuminate the record on the intelligence and defense approaches to climate change and follows previous electronic briefing books on the intelligence community’s environmental legacy and the ongoing overclassification of a 2008 climate intelligence assessment.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/climate-change-transparency-project/2026-05-27/climate-security-threat-pentagon-war