No war, no peace: The dangerous US–Iran deadlock

Analysis: A fragile ceasefire has frozen the conflict without resolving it, leaving the US and Iran trapped in a dangerous limbo vulnerable to miscalculation

28.04.2026

By Giorgio Cafiero*

Source:https://www.newarab.com/analysis/no-war-no-peace-dangerous-us-iran-deadlock

With the stalling of United States-Iran talks, Washington and Tehran are in a tense ‘No War, No Peace’ limbo.

Both sides are betting that they can outlast the other, but economic sanctions, the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the threat of military escalation keep the global stakes high.

Although blockades and rising inflation are severely straining Iran’s economy, Tehran seems better positioned to endure the pressure stemming from this deadlock than either the United States or the global economy.

With this extremely fragile Pakistani-brokered ceasefire still in place, the prospects for triumphant diplomacy will hinge on security guarantees, phased sanctions relief, and careful mediation to prevent minor incidents from spiralling back into full-scale war.

Tehran's endurance

The Trump administration appears confident that a US blockade of Iran’s ports will ultimately compel Tehran to yield to the White House’s maximalist demands.

Yet, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Islamic Republic fully capitulates. Since 1979, Iran has consistently demonstrated a remarkable resilience in the face of Washington’s efforts to isolate it, skilfully both enduring and circumventing sustained external pressure.

“Iran can probably manage for weeks with drastically reduced oil revenue and can probably manage to store oil from wells without capping them, at least for a period of time,” said Hooman Majd, an Iranian-American author, journalist, and NBC News contributor, in an interview with The New Arab.

“In the meantime, Iran will continue to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz, thus affecting the world economy,” he added.

“Iran can survive longer than President Trump believes it can, and as the cost of the war increases and there is further pressure to end the conflict, Trump will have to decide to compromise with the Iranians on a deal or invade Iran with troops.”

Washington's constraints

There is little question that American public opinion weighs heavily in the Trump administration’s strategic calculus as the United States and Iran remain locked in a perilous and protracted state of tension.

“The war is deeply unpopular, and the high inflation it has caused will almost certainly result in widespread Republican setbacks at the polls in the November mid-term elections,” explained Gordon Gray, the former US ambassador to Tunisia, to TNA.

“Popular opinion, electoral considerations, and President Trump’s famously short attention span suggest that he may seek an off-ramp before the Iranian regime does.”

On the nuclear file, Trump has painted himself into a corner, said Gray.

“Notwithstanding his decade-long characterisation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as the ‘worst deal ever,’ it looks better and better every day the war drags on since it succeeded in containing Iran’s nuclear program and subjected the program to a rigorous inspection regime,” the former American diplomat told TNA.

Calling the US blockade of Iran’s ports a “blunt instrument masquerading as a strategy,” Dr Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director of the International Crisis Group, told TNA that while it can “squeeze Iran and disrupt trade” it will fail to “produce the political surrender Washington seeks” and, ultimately, “without a face-saving off-ramp, pressure will harden Tehran’s posture rather than make it capitulate.”

Rather than establishing a “stable equilibrium,” this ‘No War, No Peace’ limbo is best described as “escalation management with live ammunition” as Dr Vaez put it.

Marked by stalled talks, the continued imposition of sanctions on Tehran, the persistence of conflict in Lebanon, and ongoing American maritime aggression toward Iran, the present situation is costly, though not intolerable, for the Iranians.

Dr Vaez explained that the central problem with this ‘No War, No Peace’ status quo lies in the fact that Tehran’s maritime leverage holds real utility only if it can ultimately be exchanged for relief.

Otherwise, Iran’s current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amounts to little more than “an expensive symbol of defiance.”

Prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough

Both Washington and Tehran profess an interest in diplomacy. Yet, both remain ensnared in a familiar sequencing dilemma. Iran insists on sanctions relief as a precondition for meaningful talks, while the United States demands concessions up front.

This impasse has become a central obstacle to progress, with negotiations repeatedly bottlenecking over the question of who moves first.

Even so, the possibility of an agreement endures. Majd maintains that the prospects for a breakthrough are not nearly as bleak as some observers suggest, leaving open the prospect that careful diplomacy could yet bridge the divide.

“The Trump administration has come to the realisation that bombing alone won’t change the regime, get the people to rise up and take over the government, or fully capitulate to US and Israeli demands, and so a deal of some sort will be considered by Trump as long as he thinks he can sell it as a win and as better than the JCPOA,” said the Iranian-American journalist.

From Washington’s perspective, a new agreement would surpass the JCPOA, as its terms, even with revised sunset provisions, would go beyond what was secured a decade ago, Majd noted.

Coupled with a halt to enrichment, such a framework would offer the West clear advantages over the 2015 accord.

Moreover, in light of the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities and Israel’s demonstrated ability to operate within Iranian airspace with relative freedom, it becomes increasingly difficult to sustain the argument that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel or other US allies, even if its missile arsenal remains intact, he added.

Iran, for its part, has compelling incentives to move beyond the current impasse toward a diplomatic breakthrough. Strained by economic pressure and in clear need of sanctions relief, Tehran would be inclined to enter into a new agreement, provided it is accompanied by credible security guarantees.

“Iran and the US are playing a game of chicken with the ceasefire, which Iran claims the US is violating and vice versa. But despite the accusations of violations, the war hasn’t resumed. Iran’s bet is that the US will blink first, and the US bets, probably mistakenly, that Iran will grow desperate enough under pressure to blink first,” Majd told TNA.

“The likelihood is that both sides, probably with the help of mediators, will find a way to not ‘blink’ but to agree to a deal that ends the war, followed by an agreement that finalises the nuclear issue,” he added.

An unstable status quo

The highly uncertain United States-Iran standoff is, for now, one of managed risk. Although both Washington and Tehran believe they are in control, neither can fully predict the moves made by the other.

What renders this ‘No War, No Peace’ phase especially precarious is that even a minor miscalculation could swiftly unravel the fragile equilibrium that currently holds.

The White House’s approach of sustained pressure without a clearly defined diplomatic offramp risks drifting into strategic inertia. Although sanctions and blockades impose tangible costs on Tehran, they have so far failed to secure the political concessions sought by the Trump administration.

Instead, such measures are likely reinforcing the Islamic Republic’s long-standing commitment to waging a defiant foreign policy grounded in resistance and self-reliance.

At the same time, mounting domestic political pressures and economic constraints within the United States may further narrow the administration’s room for manoeuvre, rendering a prolonged confrontation increasingly difficult to sustain.

For its part, Iran has shown considerable resilience in the face of sustained pressure. But its ability to weaponise disruption, particularly vis-à-vis the Strait of Hormuz, yields diminishing returns if it cannot be converted into meaningful sanctions relief. Without diplomatic progress, prolonged economic strain risks transforming strategic defiance into strategic stagnation.

Looking ahead, both the United States and Iran remain locked in a sequencing dilemma that neither can resolve unilaterally. A meaningful breakthrough will likely require external mediation alongside incremental confidence-building measures, rather than an all-encompassing grand bargain.

In this context, a phased approach, which combines limited sanctions relief with verifiable commitments on nuclear and regional issues, appears the most viable pathway toward a diplomatic solution.

Absent such efforts, however, the current unsustainable equilibrium will leave the international community extremely nervous about a situation in which the fragile ceasefire could collapse at literally any moment.

*Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics

Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero

Edited by Charlie Hoyle