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Safe and no-fly zones; useful means to keep Turkey out of coalition
By LALE KEMAL
l.kemal@todayszaman.com
24.11.2014
Source: todayszaman.com
Turkey and the US have not appeared to have bridged their differences over strategic priorities concerning the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) -- which renamed itself the Islamic State (IS) -- during talks between visiting US Vice President Joe Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in İstanbul over the weekend .
The participation of Turkey, a reluctant partner in the Western-Arab anti-IS coalition, in the coalition is conditional on the removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime as well as the creation of a safe zone and no-fly zone in neighboring Syria. The US-led anti-IS coalition's priority, however, is to defeat this terrorist organization and expel it from the large swathes of lands in Iraq and Syria that it has occupied.
At a joint press conference in İstanbul on Nov. 22 with Erdoğan, Biden said they had discussed a range of issues in Syria, including the need to deny the IS a “safe haven" and "strengthen the Syrian opposition and pursue a political transition away from the Assad regime."
The meeting came amid reports of strains between the two countries over Syria and Turkey's role in the fight against IS.
Though the Turkish insistence on no-fly zones has not won the backing of the US, Erdoğan has lately suggested the creation of no-fly zones not only in Syria but also in Iraq, similar to the one established in Iraq after the Gulf War in 1991 that was terminated a long time ago.
The no-fly zone in the north of Iraq was established shortly after the Gulf War, extending from the 36th parallel northwards to protect Iraqi Kurds from the now-deceased Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's forces.
Safe zones and no-fly zones extending from the 36th parallel are a vast area that creates security problems among other things, such as reprisals from the Assad regime, such that no refugees would want to settle in. Turkey, which is hosting over 1.5 million war refugees from Syria, seeks to settle the refugees in safe zones that it insists be created. Biden reportedly explained to Erdoğan that it is against international humanitarian law to force the refugees to go to back to areas of danger.
The Turkish military is also said to be aware of the difficulties and dangers of no-fly zones from the 1991 experience in Iraq and see eye-to-eye with the US on this issue. In addition, the military reportedly has the common primary objective of finishing off IS. Yet it knows that it has to abide by the government's position, which has already been complicating Turkey's own national interest. This is because Ankara's conditions may finally result in Turkey being excluded from the anti IS-coalition, leaving Ankara at the end fighting against this terrorist organization by itself.
Biden and Erdoğan appeared not to have been aligned in their common objective of finishing IS as Ankara has been understood to have maintained its earlier position of making its active participation in the anti-IS coalition conditional on the stipulations mentioned above.
There is, in the meantime, a convergence of ideas between Turkey and the US over training and equipping moderate Syrian opposition fighters as part of the anti-IS struggle. Yet this US-led program will take longer, whereas the coalition's warfare has been going on against IS in Iraq and in Syria for almost four-and-a-half months.
In the meantime, the no-fly zone will never happen, and the Turkish government knows this. However, it is a useful way of keeping itself out of the coalition. What we are seeing now is political posturing, but I can imagine that the US, as ever, is frustrated and will not do Erdoğan any favors.
The fact is, Washington is pretending that it wants Assad gone but it has no actual interest in doing so. Turkey thinks it can embarrass the US by demanding a no-fly zone and because the US has rejected that demand, Ankara can claim that it cannot do everything by itself and that the US is the villain. I understand the Turkish position, but at the end of the day who is stuck with 1.5 million refugees indefinitely? Not the US.
As for Aleppo, what is the commander of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) -- said to have fled to Turkey -- doing in Turkey when his troops are under pressure?
Turkey says that if Aleppo falls, another 2.3 million refugees will then stream across the border. However, I think there is a real concern in Ankara that if Aleppo falls to the Syrian government and they can secure the city, many of the refugees in Turkey will go back home. That would be a real blow to the Turkish government's plan of continuing to push for Assad to go.
Finally, I wonder how and whether Turkey will manage to get out of this Syrian mess, which has largely been of its own making.
By LALE KEMAL
l.kemal@todayszaman.com
24.11.2014
Source: todayszaman.com
Turkey and the US have not appeared to have bridged their differences over strategic priorities concerning the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) -
The participation of Turkey, a reluctant partner in the Western-
At a joint press conference in İstanbul on Nov. 22 with Erdoğan, Biden said they had discussed a range of issues in Syria, including the need to deny the IS a “safe haven" and "strengthen the Syrian opposition and pursue a political transition away from the Assad regime."
The meeting came amid reports of strains between the two countries over Syria and Turkey's role in the fight against IS.
Though the Turkish insistence on no-
The no-
Safe zones and no-
The Turkish military is also said to be aware of the difficulties and dangers of no-
Biden and Erdoğan appeared not to have been aligned in their common objective of finishing IS as Ankara has been understood to have maintained its earlier position of making its active participation in the anti-
There is, in the meantime, a convergence of ideas between Turkey and the US over training and equipping moderate Syrian opposition fighters as part of the anti-
In the meantime, the no-
The fact is, Washington is pretending that it wants Assad gone but it has no actual interest in doing so. Turkey thinks it can embarrass the US by demanding a no-
As for Aleppo, what is the commander of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) -
Turkey says that if Aleppo falls, another 2.3 million refugees will then stream across the border. However, I think there is a real concern in Ankara that if Aleppo falls to the Syrian government and they can secure the city, many of the refugees in Turkey will go back home. That would be a real blow to the Turkish government's plan of continuing to push for Assad to go.
Finally, I wonder how and whether Turkey will manage to get out of this Syrian mess, which has largely been of its own making.