Trump’s Greenland threats push Europe toward divorcing America

With NATO thrown into question, some officials see the “coalition of the willing” as the basis for a new alliance without the U.S.

19.01.2026

By Tim Ross

Source:https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-tariff-threats-tensions-push-europe-allies-toward-divorcing-america-transatlantic-power/

LONDON — As with many failing relationships, it’s been a story of arguments, unspoken tensions and trying to keep up appearances in public since Donald Trump reentered the White House a year ago.

But for many European governments, including America’s longest-standing and most loyal allies, Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs against anyone who tries to stop him taking Greenland was the final straw. Divorce, they believe, is now inevitable.

In private, dismayed European officials describe Trump’s rush to annex the sovereign Danish territory as “crazy” and “mad,” asking if he is caught up in his “warrior mode” after his Venezuela adventure — and saying he deserves Europe’s toughest retaliation for what many see as a clear and unprovoked “attack” against allies on the other side of the Atlantic.

“I think it is perceived as one step too far,” said one European diplomat, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Europe has been criticized for being weak against Trump. There is some truth in that, but there are red lines.”

Senior European officials increasingly believe it’s time to face the truth that Trump’s America is no longer a reliable trade partner, still less a dependable security ally, and urgently look to the future. “There is a shift in U.S. policy and in many ways it is permanent,” according to a senior official with a European government. “Waiting it out is not a solution. What needs to be done is an orderly and coordinated movement to a new reality.”

That coordination has already begun, as has the big conversation about what comes next.

Barring a radical shift in the approach of the United States, this process seems likely to end in a radical reshaping of the West that would upend the global balance of power. The implications range from transatlantic economic damage as trade tensions rise, to security risks as Europe attempts to defend itself without American help before it is fully ready to do so.

There would likely be costs to the United States as well, such as in its ability to project hard power into Africa and the Middle East without access to the network of bases, airstrips and logistical support that Europe currently provides.

A post-U.S. Future

Alongside all the talk of retaliation by targeting U.S. trade, diplomats and government officials in national capitals are also considering what a long-term split from Washington might bring.

For most the prospect is a painful one, ending 80 years of peaceful cooperation, mutual support and profitable trade and dealing a death blow to NATO in its current form. Plenty of governments want to salvage what they can, while Italy’s hard right leader, Giorgia Meloni, is trying to rebuild relations.

But for some government officials, a post-U.S. future for Western allies isn’t hard to imagine.

For starters, European states, including those not in the EU like Britain and Norway, have spent much of Trump’s second term working in an increasingly effective group that already operates without America: the so-called coalition of the willing to support Ukraine.

National security advisers from 35 governments are in regular contact, meeting frequently online and in person, as well as interacting via less formal text messaging. They are accustomed to seeking multilateral solutions in a world where Trump is a big part of the problem.

Levels of trust in these circles are generally high, according to people familiar with the way the group operates. Nor is it just at the level of officials: National leaders are themselves rolling up their sleeves and working in intimate new groupings.

Leaders including the U.K.’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Alexander Stubb of Finland and Meloni of Italy regularly text with each other — often in the same group chat.

Texting leaders

Over the past year they have developed a well-drilled routine of exchanging messages whenever Trump does something wild and potentially damaging. “When things start moving quickly, it’s hard to do the coordination, and this group [chat] is really effective,” said one person familiar with the arrangement. “It tells you a lot about the personal relationships and how they matter.”

The “informal but active” arrangement is known as the Washington Group, after the collection of European leaders who visited the White House with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last August.

Their approach for the past year has mostly been to keep calm and respond to his policy actions rather than taking the bait of his provocative words. That ethos has oiled the wheels of the Ukraine peace process, with the coalition of the willing closing in on a framework for a peace plan that the U.S. is signed up to — including American security guarantees for Ukraine. This marks a significant achievement given that Trump earlier ruled out the U.S. military playing a role.  

But Trump’s hell-raising over Greenland has now tipped the balance.

Gone is the softly-softly approach to the American president’s threats. Even Starmer, normally the most circumspect of leaders, called out the president’s tariff threat as “wrong,” including, apparently, in a direct call with Trump on Sunday.

The Greenland crisis has focused minds on the question of how to move on without America by their side.

“The coalition of the willing started as being about Ukraine,” said another diplomat. “But it has created very close ties between some of the key people in the capitals. They have been building up trust and also aptitude to work together. They know each other by name and it’s easy to reach out and to send texts.”

Who needs NATO, anyway?

This format could potentially become the seedbed for a new security alliance in an era when the U.S. no longer supports NATO and European security. A new arrangement wouldn’t exclude cooperation with America, but nor would it take it for granted.

Also in the text chats with the Washington Group leaders is Zelenskyy himself, which brings another intriguing idea into the mix. Ukraine is by far the most militarized country among those represented, with a huge army, a highly sophisticated drone production industry, and more expertise in the realities of fighting a war than anyone.

While Ukraine has long sought membership in NATO, that now seems less of a prize than it once did, as America’s promises to underpin any security guarantees grow less convincing by the day.

If Ukraine’s military might were to be included, when added to that of France, Germany, Poland and the U.K., among others, the potential armed power of the coalition of the willing would be vast, and would include both nuclear and non-nuclear states.

Although Europe’s need to defend itself with less American support is an old topic of conversation, recent days have seen a flurry of initiatives and headlines from Brussels. Officially, the EU has resolved to be able to defend itself by 2030.

European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius a week ago proposed a standing EU army of 100,000 personnel and revived the idea of a European Security Council of around 12 members, including the U.K. Von der Leyen touted a new European Security Strategy, though few details have yet been provided.

There is wide agreement that these conversations about a new European security architecture need to happen, and fast. EU leaders will meet in person for an emergency summit in the coming days to calibrate a response to Trump’s Greenland threats, though the discussion may range far wider than that.

With Trump due to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, there is also a possibility of face-to-face talks between the European and American sides.

After speaking to Merz, Macron, Starmer and NATO chief Mark Rutte, von der Leyen said on Sunday that Europeans would “stand firm” in their commitment to protect Greenland. “We will face these challenges to our European solidarity with steadiness and resolve,” she said.

Given the current moment, some creative thinking will also be required.