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AKP on ISIL, Syrian Kurdish region, Assad

By İHSAN YILMAZ
ihsan.yilmaz@todayszaman.com
03.10.2014
Source: todayszaman.com

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has finally decided to act together with the anti-Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) coalition and has gotten permission from Parliament to be able to send the army to Iraqi and Syrian soil. In addition, foreign armies will now be able to use Turkish soil to attack ISIL.

This is indeed a radical U-turn given the fact that for a couple of years the AKP has been soft, to say the least, towards ISIL, thinking that ISIL is an enemy of the Assad regime so it is a friend! Until going to the US, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was still stating that Turkey could only help the anti-ISIL coalition in humanitarian issues. He was convinced abroad and since we do not have a functioning democracy but a semi-autocratic regime, Parliament obeyed the wishes of Erdoğan and, therefore, the wishes of the Obama administration.
Yet it seems that our good old very crafty and skillful Mr. Erdoğan seems to be using this opportunity to tackle two of his major problems that the US is not at all interested in at the moment. It seems that Erdoğan wants, firstly, to weaken the Kurdish de facto autonomous region in northern Syria. Secondly, he may adventurously try to do something against his now personal enemy Bashar al-Assad. The mandate given to the Davutoğlu government to be able to send the army to Iraq and Syria contains elements that substantiate these concerns. For instance, it mentions threats coming from the Assad regime. There have so far been no such threats to Turkey.
Many AKP politicians and their supporters think that they had made a mistake by not accepting the US offers back in 2003 to allow the anti-Saddam coalition to use Turkish territory. They are not alone in thinking this as many nationalist politicians and intellectuals share their view on this issue. They believe that if Turkey had entered the Iraqi territory from the north, the Kurds would not be able to establish their almost independent state in northern Iraq. What is more, the traditionally Turcoman cities of Mosul and especially Kirkuk are now becoming Kurdish cities and Turcomans have been eliminated in one way or another. They believe that if Turkey had acted with the US at the time, it could have prevented this.
As far as northern Syria and its de fact autonomous Kurdish region are concerned, the AKP does not want to make the same “mistake.” That is one of the major reasons why they have happily succumbed to US pressure this time, thinking that they may benefit from this opportunity. I think this is adventurism. Adventurism that I call Envero-Islamist adventurism.
Erdoğan does not talk much on these issues, but if you listen to Davutoğlu, you are inclined to think that if he had been born towards the end of the 19th century, he would be an Enver Paşa, who took the Ottomans to World War I in the hope of victories and gains and destroyed the empire. Western powers, mainly the US, would not allow Turkey to touch this autonomous region anyway. Firstly, Erdoğan and Davutoğlu must not risk this and must not exhaust Turkey's limited energy on this issue. Secondly, touching this region would immensely upset the Kurds in Turkey. There are all sorts of signs to this effect. And Turkey will not be able to achieve peace at home.
If our Envero-Islamist Erdoğan and Davutoğlu try to advance the Turkish army to harm the Assad regime, this will be a worse trouble and headache for Turkey. There are rumors that Erdoğan is much more insistent on this than Davutoğlu. It seems Erdoğan's personal grudge against Assad plays a role in this issue. First, Turkey's Western allies are now almost comfortable with Assad, who is the known devil. They were too afraid to see a Muslim Brotherhood regime coming to power in Egypt and they observed that Turkey was trying to get a similar result in Syria, too. That is why they have stopped supporting the Syrian opposition.
Having seen the al-Qaeda-type terrorist groups in Syria, the West would be happy to continue with Assad. Secondly, Syria and Iran would never allow Turkey to touch Assad, except for in Erdoğan's sweet dreams. Without the help of the US, etc., Turkey may have its own “Vietnam” fiasco -- if it tries to directly touch Assad's forces and territory.